Real Estate Analysis and Commentary

Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September 2026, reaching their lowest index reading since the National Association of Realtors began tracking contracts in 2001. The nationwide slowdown unfolded as mortgage rates climbed, even as more homes became available. The latest figures show where demand weakened and how the changes affect buyers and sellers.

Key Takeaways

• Pending home sales declined 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025, bringing the national index to a record-low 66.0
• The West experienced the steepest monthly decrease at 9.2%, followed by the South at 8.2%
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from 6.71% on September 3 to 7.40% on October 15
• Active U.S. home listings increased 5.4% annually, while 20.8% of listed properties had price reductions
• Completed existing-home sales increased 1.5% in September despite the decline in newly signed contracts

The decline was considerably steeper than economists expected. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% monthly decrease, but the National Association of Realtors reported a 7.3% retreat in signed contracts for existing homes.

“Market conditions weakened in September due to fast-rising mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the association.

The Pending Home Sales Index fell to 66.0, down 11.3% from September 2025. That was the lowest reading in the measure’s history, a distinction that applies to contracts rather than completed home sales.